Attributing Cyber Attacks

Who did it? Attribution is fundamental. Human lives and the security of the state may depend on ascribing agency to an agent. In the context of computer network intrusions, attribution is commonly seen as one of the most intractable technical problems, as either solvable or not solvable, and as dependent mainly on the available forensic evidence. But is it? Is this a productive understanding of attribution? — This article argues that attribution is what states make of it. To show how, we introduce the Q Model: designed to explain, guide, and improve the making of attribution. Matching an offender to an offence is an exercise in minimising uncertainty on three levels: tactically, attribution is an art as well as a science; operationally, attribution is a nuanced process not a black-and-white problem; and strategically, attribution is a function of what is at stake politically. Successful attribution requires a range of skills on all levels, careful management, time, leadership, stress-testing, prudent communication, and recognising limitations and challenges.     

中国传统战争哲学理念的近代嬗变

近代以来,在西方列强坚船利炮的重创之下,中华民族在军事上接连失败。在严酷的现实面前,中华民族流传两千多年的传统战争哲学理念,受到了前所未有的挑战。在近代战争的冲击下,中国传统战争哲学理念开始了缓慢的嬗变历程。主要表现为三点：“避战求和”理念的破产与激变;“义战必胜”理念的质疑与超越;“道器合一”理念的背离与回归。     

基于四元联系数的非战争军事行动装备保障能力评价方法研究

针对非战争军事行动装备保障能力评价问题,综合运用能力模型和集对分析理论,在构建非战争军事行动装备保障能力评价指标体系基础上,建立非战争军事行动装备保障能力四元联系数评价模型,并示例说明该方法的应用．     

Decision support model for effects estimation and proportionality assessment for targeting in cyber operations

Cyber operations are relatively a new phenomenon of the last two decades.During that period,they have increased in number,complexity,and agility,while their design and development have been processes well kept under secrecy.As a consequence,limited data(sets)regarding these incidents are available.Although various academic and practitioner public communities addressed some of the key points and dilemmas that surround cyber operations(such as attack,target identification and selection,and collateral damage),still methodologies and models are needed in order to plan,execute,and assess them in a responsibly and legally compliant way.Based on these facts,it is the aim of this article to propose a model that i))estimates and classifies the effects of cyber operations,and ii)assesses proportionality in order to support targeting decisions in cyber operations.In order to do that,a multi-layered fuzzy model was designed and implemented by analysing real and virtual realistic cyber operations combined with interviews and focus groups with technical-military experts.The proposed model was evaluated on two cyber operations use cases in a focus group with four technical-military experts.Both the design and the results of the evaluation are revealed in this article.     

高科技武器装备发展推动作战理念的创新

结合美国在近几年的几次局部战争中所使用的高科技的信息化武器装备、远程作战武器和精确打击武器等武器装备,研究分析了高科技武器装备的发展动态,促进产生了一些新的作战理念(战术战法、作战理论),如网络中心战、夺取制信息权、非对称作战和非线性作战,而新的作战理念又推动了高科技武器装备的完善和进一步发展。同时还分析了高科技武器装备目前尚存在的一些不足。     

系统动力学防空战场信息战模型

现代条件下的防空作战是一种信息化作战样式,阐明了防空信息战的基本概念,论述了系统动力学用于研究防空信息作战的适用性,建立了防空战场信息战的系统动力学模型,通过对模型不同仿真结果的比较,印证了制信息权在防空作战中的重要性,做出了防空战场信息作战的对策分析。     

大力开展基于智能技术的数字化战例库建设

战例研究是进行军事问题研究的重要基础,也是汲取战争经验、深化军事斗争准备的现实需要。开展战例研究的前提是建立起知识体系完备、检索运用便捷的战例库。随着智能技术的发展,战例数据的标准化描述、规范化存储、智能化分析成为可能,极大地支撑了便捷、高效的数字化战例库系统开发工作。本文首先从战例研究的重要性入手,分析了当前战例运用和研究的基本现状,梳理了存在的典型问题;其次,从数字化技术对战例描述和战例库建设的影响角度剖析了数字化战例库构建的基本需求;最后,通过对智能技术的把握,分析了智能技术对数字化战例库构建的支撑作用,并对如何开展基于智能技术的数字化战例库建设提出了初步设想。     

制导炸弹发展综述

制导炸弹具有精度高、成本低、投放距离远等特点,已成为航空炸弹发展的重要方向,制导炸弹是在普通炸弹基础上改进的,制导系统是制导炸弹的关键技术。     

孙子“慎战”思想对武警部队履行职能的启示

“慎战”是孙子军事思想中层次最高的战争决策思想,其理论主要包括不战思想、重战思想、善战思想和善后思想。在以和平与发展为主题的时代,孙子的“慎战”思想启示我们：要牢固树立“兵者,国之大事”的观念,加强部队现代化建设步伐,制定正确决策,“先为不可胜”;要以“非危不战”为原则,遏制犯罪,维护稳定,努力创造和平稳定的社会环境;要依据“胜于无形”,认真处理国内民族及其他矛盾,保持和谐稳定的社会环境。     

吴起战争观浅议

吴起是战国时期伟大的军事家,他在继承前人兵学理论、总结当时战争经验的基础上,系统地论述了其战争观念,并形成了许多新的见解。其战争观丰富了中国古代的兵学理论,在中国兵学发展史上具有重大的意义。